S&P 5005,892+0.4%FTSE 1008,441-0.2%EUR/USD1.0842+0.3%GBP/USD1.2731-0.1%Brent Crude$78.4+1.2%Gold$3,312+0.6%US 10Y4.38%+0.06VIX18.2-0.8DXY101.2-0.8%S&P 5005,892+0.4%FTSE 1008,441-0.2%EUR/USD1.0842+0.3%GBP/USD1.2731-0.1%Brent Crude$78.4+1.2%Gold$3,312+0.6%US 10Y4.38%+0.06VIX18.2-0.8DXY101.2-0.8%
Featured analysis

More oil is getting through Hormuz. Prices are still above $100. Here is why.

Crude flows through Hormuz have recovered to around 14 million barrels per day, close to pre-war levels. Brent is still trading above $100. The volume came back. The cost didn't. Understanding why tells you more about where energy markets are heading than the headline flow numbers do.

MarketsOctober 4, 20262 min read
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Market pulse
Brent crude-2.1%
$102.59
US 10Y yield+0.11%
5.28%
Ibovespa+2.63%
192,114
Geopolitical risk dashboardFull dashboard →
Global risk index
92/100
Critical · Hormuz tanker strikes continue
US–China tension
70/100
Elevated · truce extended to Jan 10
Middle East volatility
95/100
Critical · flows recovering, attacks ongoing
EUR political risk
58/100
Elevated · gilt yields near 6%, ECB hiking
Markets

More oil is getting through Hormuz. Prices are still above $100. Here is why.

Crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to around 14 million barrels per day. Brent is still above $100. The volume came back. The cost didn't.

October 4, 2026 · 2 min read
Geopolitics

Brazil is heading for a runoff on October 25. The market already has a view on who wins.

Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula 47% to 45% with 99.9% of votes counted. The Ibovespa rose 2.6% on Friday before the vote. The market has a preference and it isn't subtle about it.

October 4, 2026 · 2 min read
Geopolitics

Iran offered to reopen Hormuz in seven days. Trump said no.

Iran presented a seven-day roadmap to reopen the Strait of Hormuz at the UN General Assembly. Trump rejected it on Saturday. The WSJ reported he has told aides to expect resumed bombing after the midterms.

September 27, 2026 · 3 min read
Sunday dispatch

One email a week. The political developments that actually moved markets, and the ones that should have but didn't. Published on Sundays, read with coffee.