Brazil votes on October 25. One week out, Flávio Bolsonaro leads Lula in every major poll. Al Jazeera reported on October 16 that all three current polls fall within a 2% margin of error. Experts describe the race as a statistical toss-up. The Ibovespa has not been treating it that way.
Brazilian assets have been pricing a Bolsonaro win since before the first round. The index gained about 5% through election week and has held those gains. The real is firm. Polymarket has Bolsonaro at around 87 to 88%.
Bolsonaro won 56,104,503 first-round votes against Lula's 53,879,538. Just over two million votes in a country of 158.7 million registered voters. He has campaigned on tax cuts, a crackdown on crime, and tighter government spending. His rallies have featured large US flags and images of Trump.
Lula in the final week
Lula has been holding regular rallies trying to energise his base. He leads among low-income voters, the northeast, Catholics and women. That is the same coalition that won him the 2022 election. His argument to voters is that Bolsonaro represents a return to a government that stripped back social programmes.
The Trump association cuts both ways. In 2026, Trump's approval on economic management has been at new lows in domestic US polling, largely on energy costs. Whether Brazilian voters process that context or see it as a signal of strength and market credibility depends on which Brazil you're in.
What actually isn't priced
A Bolsonaro win is in the price. A Lula win is not.
Brazil's pollsters missed the first round by nearly two points. Most had Lula ahead. If the same systematic undercount of Bolsonaro support exists in runoff polling, then a 5 to 6 point lead is covering a much narrower real gap. An upset Lula win hits Brazilian assets hard. Petrobras is the immediate focal point. His history of pressuring the company to subsidise domestic fuel prices rather than maximise distributions is documented and well-feared. The real weakens. Funds with emerging market Brazil exposure face redemption pressure.
The Ibovespa has a lot of good news priced in for October 25.