Bessent says the Iran sanctions will be unlike anything seen before. Tehran has heard that before.

Scott Bessent told markets last week that the US is preparing to impose economic measures on Iran that have "never been seen in the history of economic isolation on a country." It's the kind of statement designed to move oil prices and rattle Tehran.

It did both. Brent finished the week more than 5% higher. Iranian officials responded by warning of "devastating" military responses if the new restrictions are implemented.

But there's a detail worth sitting with. The US has been sanctioning Iran continuously since 1979. A Congressional Research Service report on the subject describes them as "arguably the most extensive and comprehensive set of sanctions that the United States maintains on any country." General License X, issued in June to allow Iranian oil exports as part of the MOU, was the most expansive energy-sector license since oil sanctions began. It lasted three weeks before being revoked when Iran resumed attacks on shipping.

The question isn't whether new sanctions will hurt Iran. They will. Iranian crude loadings have already fallen to about one-seventh of their pre-war level. The economy is under severe strain. Cargo is stuck in Dubai. Merchants can't import basic goods. The pressure is real.

The question is whether more pressure changes Iran's behaviour. Iran's calculation since February has been that it can outlast the US. That's not an irrational bet. Washington is heading into midterms. Oil prices are eating into consumer confidence. The naval blockade costs money to maintain. Every week this drags on is a week of elevated fuel costs, strained refineries and diplomatic friction with countries that need Hormuz oil to function.

Iran has survived 47 years of US sanctions by building parallel systems, finding workarounds and accepting economic damage as the cost of political independence. The regime has also watched what happened to Libya and Iraq when they gave up leverage. That institutional memory doesn't disappear because Bessent gives a tough interview on CNBC.

The most likely outcome is that sanctions tighten, oil stays elevated, and both sides wait to see who blinks. That's been the pattern since April. There's no obvious reason it changes this week.